Could The Western Civilization Be On The Verge Of Collapse? Science Says That It Is
History has a tendency to repeat itself, doesn’t it? Well, yes and no. But the fact of the matter is that history has been filled with various rises and collapses, the outcome of which are us living in this world today. And even though we tend to not think about it this way, history hasn’t somehow stopped, just because we are now alive to see it unfold. It marches on with the passage of time, just like everything else.
And like many others before it, the Western Civilization is the leading trendsetter in the world today. However, as history has shown us time and time again, this will probably not last. This is what Peter Turchin, Professor at the University of Connecticut’s department of ecology and evolutionary biology, thinks. He believes that Western Civilization is headed toward a period of unprecedented turmoil and a possible complete collapse of the social system as we know it and take for granted today. He also believes that this collapse will take place sometime in the following decade if we’re not careful.
Professor Turchin is in charge of cliodynamics, a field that studies the trends of society over the centuries by making use of history, sociology, mathematics and other scientific criteria. And with cliodynamics, professor Turchin began creating a model in order to see where we’re heading right now. The results aren’t too promising. He believes that the United States is headed towards a period of civil unrest, similar to how most of the other empires of old had. And if this happens, then the whole Western Civilization will be headed in the same direction.
“We should expect many years of political turmoil, peaking in the 2020s,”he writes.
“But this is a science-based forecast, not a ‘prophecy’. It’s based on solid social science.”
The main force behind this possible future implosion will come from a process called “elite overproduction”. As more and more people reach the ranks of the elite rich, they begin squabbling with each other over power and control. But since this power is limited, there will be many more “losers” than before. These increased tensions between the extremely rich will cause a rift which will, in turn, lead to an impossibility of cooperation between people of all social classes. It happened before, and it may as well happen again. In other words, the elites will try to destabilise the power of the ones in charge, on after the other, to the point of no return.
“This happens because the more contenders there are, the more of them end up on the losing side. A large class of disgruntled elite-wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable, has been denied access to elite positions.”
It is also a known fact that the, so called, one percent is completely disconnected from the majority of the population when it comes to their wants and needs, and this division will only become wider as time goes on.
This already existing situation will lead to a period of stagnation and decline in both the average citizen’s living standards as well as the fiscal situation of the country as a whole. This situation could become so severe that the state will not be able to ever recover. When the “tipping point” will be exactly is unknown. This theory here only shows trends, not actual events.
There is a silver lining to all of this, however, and that is the fact that we know about it. This is something which all the previous civilizations before us never had; warning. And with this information, we could better prepare ourselves for what’s to come, and when the “financial titans” will begin to battle it out, taking us all down with them.
“Our society, like all previous complex societies, is on a rollercoaster,” Turchin said. “Impersonal social forces bring us to the top; then comes the inevitable plunge.”
“The descent is not inevitable,” he continued. “Ours is the first society that can perceive how those forces operate, even if dimly. This means that we can avoid the worst — perhaps by switching to a less harrowing track, perhaps by redesigning the rollercoaster altogether.”
And before you say it, Trump had nothing to do with it. As professorTrunchin says, the outcome of this election was more of a symptom of this situation the Western Civilization is headed towards, rather than the cause. He also goes on saying that the outcome of the election “changes nothing in this equation”.
“It did not predict that Donald Trump would become the American President in 2016. But it did predict rising social and political instability.”
“And, unless something is done, instability will continue to rise.”